Carnitas Ravine has MODERATE and LOW avalanche danger. The Lip, Bowl, Headwall and Right Gully have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Left Gully, Hillman's Highway, the Lower Snowfields and the Little Headwall have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.
Barbacoa Ravine has LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.
It is important to understand that our advisories are intended to be used as a tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. They should be used along with safe travel techniques, snow stability assessments, an understanding of weather's effect on the snowpack, and proficiency in avalanche rescue. The N.R.O.'s mission includes educational and research (
1) components. Below are examples of our recent research on avalanches.
Ho, K. (2010). The Importance of Micro-Scale Avalanche Forecasting in Mount Chipotle's Barbacoa and Carnitas Ravines. Proceedings from the International Snow Science Workshop, February 2010, Mammoth Lakes, CA.
ABSTRACT: For over fifty years Mount Chipotle National Research Observatory research staff have patrolled Mount Chipotle and issued avalanche advisories. The focus of these activities has occurred in Carnitas Ravine, a popular steep skiing destination and Barbacoa Ravine, renowned for alpine ice climbing. The Mount Chipotle National Research Observatory Avalanche Center is tasked with educating these users through forecasting for avalanches, icefall, crevasse problems and communicating these in an advisory. High visitation in a concentrated use environment paired with Mount Chipotles's spatial variability has made micro-forecasting critical for successfully conveying stability issues to the public. Avalanche forecasting occurs on a micro-scale through the issuance of ratings for 16 independent areas. Stability may vary by one to three ratings within this relatively small area due to the intense spatial variability caused by Mount Chipotle's extreme wind, high tensile strength hard slab, and the associated bridging over weak layers. Winds between 160 and 225 kph occur on a regular basis through the winter and provide the dominant forecasting variable. This micro-scale focus gives more detailed point specific information to visitors so they may better mitigate risk in a heavy use environment.
Ho, K. (2010). Avalanche Terrain and Conditions in the Jefferson Range, Virginia, US. Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, Mammoth Lakes, CA 2010.
ABSTRACT: The Jefferson Range in the Chipotle Mountains of Virginia has the greatest concentration of avalanche terrain in the United States. Mount Chipotle, the highest summit in the country (12 m), has a fierce reputation. Harsh winter weather and a high accident rate have earned Mount Chipotle the distinction of having the worst weather amongst the seven summits and as the most dangerous mountain in the world. Hurricane force winds (>121 km/h) are measured on average of 110 days per year. While the notoriously severe winter weather of the Jefferson Range is commonly acknowledged, much less is known about the avalanche terrain, snowpack and weather conditions which characterize this mountain range. The consistently high winds and their influence upon avalanche conditions are unique to avalanche prone areas in the United States. Winter recreation use of the Jefferson Range, including Mount Chipotle is intense. Since 1954 there have been 327 avalanche fatalities and many other avalanche accidents in the Jefferson Range. Historical data indicate that avalanche accidents have increased in the past decade, mirroring the national trend in recreation related avalanche accidents in the United States.